Share Button

Hello hung parliament: Britain is back into deals and power arrangements, after just two years of Conservative majority. Another election in 2017 is a possibility if things fall apart.

The question I want to explore is this: is the first-past-the-post system (FPTP) delivering what voters want?

FPTP is one of the main criticisms of the UK political system. Each MP just needs to win the most votes in a seat, which can mean that they need to win far fewer than half the votes to be elected. That means smaller parties can pick up lots of votes, and get no seats, and results are skewed towards the winning party.

The most egregious example of this is the UK Independence Party – UKIP – in the 2015 election. With 12 per cent of the overall count – 3.8 million votes – they won just a single seat. FPTP clearly screwed UKIP in 2015.

This is nothing new. The Liberal Democrats have always suffered in this way, and their manifesto invariably contains a section on voting reform, moving to systems such as single transferable vote.

Whatever the merits of other systems, the question for the British people is not just about smaller parties. Does FPTP skew the result towards one or both of the two main parties, Conservative and Labour?

To assess whether FPTP is delivering an unfair outcome, the best measure is to look at the percentage of seats won compared to the percentage of votes won. This takes into consideration the different number of seats available in each election, and (importantly) voter turnout.

A perfect system would deliver a score for each party of 1. That would mean votes translate into seats at exactly the same rate. A score above 1 means the party gets more seats for their votes; a score less than one is the opposite, the party gets fewer seats per vote.

The Lib Dems have clearly suffered, with their scores in the last 10 elections running like this: 0.25, 0.16, 0.38, 0.44, 0.43, 0.42, 0.17, 0.15, 0.14, 0.13.

UKIP’s 2015 result was 0.01 – far worse than anything the Lib Dems have endured. (The Green party’s score in 2015 and 2017 was 0.04 and 0.10 – also a terrible ratio).

Some smaller parties lose out – that’s clear. Others do better – the Scottish National Party have in the last two elections got around 1.8 – in other words, close to twice the seats that their vote share suggests. Sinn Fein, the DUP and Plaid Cymru have also all scored above 1. The lesson is that smaller parties do well if their vote is concentrated in a region, rather than spread out over England.

But I think the bigger issue is whether the main parties are getting seats far out of proportion. That’s a more alarming question, as it has far greater impact on whether a party can force through legislation that half the country doesn’t want.

The latest election has in fact delivered the fairest set of results in the last 40 years (looking at the last 10 general elections). The Conservatives got 1.15 seat share per vote share; Labour got 1.01. This is the only time in the data that I’m looking at that the winning party was below 1.2. FPTP is not the problem here in terms of delivering voter intention. In fact, a hung parliament is exactly reflective of the votes cast.

The worst years for FPTP skewing the results were in fact the New Labour victories of 1997, 2001 and 2005. The Labour scores for those years were 1.47, 1.54, and 1.57 – in other words Labour got around a third more seats than the votes suggested they should. The second-place Conservatives were below 1 for all those three elections.

In 2010, Labour came second, but still got a higher seat allocation – 1.37 to the Tories’ 1.31.

The 2015 election saw the Conservatives benefitting from FPTP with the highest score since the Thatcher years: 1.37. But Labour were still getting a score over 1 as well.

The upshot of all this is that Labour clearly benefits from the FPTP structure better than the Tories, never more so than under Blair. The constituency boundary changes that are proposed by the electoral commission may not come into effect if there is another election this year. Which is good for Labour – they were the party that was to lose out the most by the rejig, and would make it harder to translate votes into seats, and reduce their score.

If another election is to take place in 2017, the benefit that Labour gets from FPTP means that coming second is less damaging than it is for the Tories. Yet another hung parliament is on the cards, unless Labour can make another seismic shift in votes. In the meantime, the case for electoral reform is weakened – why change a system that generally reflects voter intention?

PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
2017 Conservative 318 13,667,213 42.4 48.9 1.15 650
Labour 262 12,874,985 40 40.3 1.01
Scottish National 35 977,569 3 5.4 1.79
Liberal Democrat 12 2,371,772 7.4 1.8 0.25
Democratic Unionist 10 292,316 0.9 1.5 1.71
Sinn Fein 7 238,915 0.7 1.1 1.54
Plaid Cymru 4 164,466 0.5 0.6 1.23
Green Party 1 525,371 1.6 0.2 0.10
Others 1 186,675 0.6 0.2 0.26
UKIP 0 593,852 1.8 na na
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
2015 Conservative 331 11,334,920 36.9 50.9 1.38 650
Labour 232 9,347,326 30.4 35.7 1.17
Scottish National 56 1,454,436 4.7 8.6 1.83
Liberal Democrat 8 2,415,888 7.9 1.2 0.16
Democratic Unionist 8 184,260 0.6 1.2 2.05
Sinn Féin 4 176,232 0.6 0.6 1.03
Plaid Cymru 3 181,694 0.6 0.5 0.77
SDLP 3 99,809 0.3 0.5 1.54
Ulster Unionist 2 114,935 0.4 0.3 0.77
UKIP 1 3,881,129 12.6 0.2 0.01
Green 1 1,157,613 3.8 0.2 0.04
Others 1 164,826 0.5 0.2 0.31
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
2010 Conservative 306 10,703,744 36.1 47.15 1.31 649
Labour 258 8,606,518 29 39.75 1.37
Liberal Democrat 57 6,836,198 23 8.78 0.38
Democratic Unionist 8 168,216 0.6 1.23 2.05
Scottish National 6 491,386 1.7 0.92 0.54
Sinn Féin 5 171,942 0.6 0.77 1.28
Plaid Cymru 3 165,394 0.6 0.46 0.77
SDLP 3 110,970 0.4 0.46 1.16
Green 1 284,823 1 0.15 0.15
Alliance 1 42,762 0.1 0.15 1.54
Independent 1 229,021 0.8 0.15 0.19
UKIP 0 919,546 3.1 na na
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
2005 Labour 356 9,567,589 35.2 55.11 1.57 646
Conservative 198 8,784,915 32.4 30.65 0.95
Liberal Democrat 62 5,985,454 22 9.60 0.44
Democratic Unionist 9 241,856 0.9 1.39 1.55
Scottish National 6 412,267 1.5 0.93 0.62
Sinn Féin 5 174,530 0.6 0.77 1.29
Plaid Cymru 3 174,838 0.6 0.46 0.77
SDLP 3 125,626 0.5 0.46 0.93
Ulster Unionist 1 127,414 0.5 0.15 0.31
Respect 1 68,094 0.3 0.15 0.52
Ind Kid Hosp 1 18,739 0.1 0.15 1.55
Others 1 251,646 0.9 0.15 0.17
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
2001 Labour 412 10,724,953 40.7 62.52 1.54 659
Conservative 166 8,357,615 31.7 25.19 0.79
Liberal Democrat 52 4,814,321 18.3 7.89 0.43
Ulster Unionist 6 216,839 0.8 0.91 1.14
Scottish National 5 464,314 1.8 0.76 0.42
Democratic Unionist 5 181,999 0.7 0.76 1.08
Plaid Cymru 4 195,893 0.7 0.61 0.87
Sinn Féin 4 175,933 0.7 0.61 0.87
SDLP 3 169,865 0.6 0.46 0.76
Speaker 1 16,053 0.1 0.15 1.52
Independent 1 108,232 0.5 0.15 0.30
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
1997 Labour 418 13,518,167 43.2 63.43 1.47 659
Conservative 165 9,600,943 30.7 25.04 0.82
Liberal Democrat 46 5,242,947 16.8 6.98 0.42
Ulster Unionist 10 258,349 0.8 1.52 1.90
Scottish National 6 621,550 2 0.91 0.46
Plaid Cymru 4 161,030 0.5 0.61 1.21
SDLP 3 190,814 0.6 0.46 0.76
Sinn Féin 2 126,921 0.4 0.30 0.76
Democratic Unionist 2 107,348 0.3 0.30 1.01
Speaker 1 23,969 0.1 0.15 1.52
UK Unionist 1 12,817 0 0.15
Independent 1 64,482 0.1 0.15 1.52
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
1992 Conservative 336 14,093,007 41.9 51.61 1.23 651
Labour 271 11,560,484 34.4 41.63 1.21
Liberal Democrat 20 5,999,606 17.8 3.07 0.17
Ulster Unionist 9 271,049 0.8 1.38 1.73
SDLP 4 184,445 0.5 0.61 1.23
Plaid Cymru 4 156,796 0.5 0.61 1.23
Democratic Unionist 3 103,039 0.3 0.46 1.54
Scottish National 3 629,564 1.9 0.46 0.24
Ulster Popular Unionist 1 19,305 0.1 0.15 1.54
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
1987 Conservative 376 13,760,935 42.2 57.85 1.37 650
Labour 229 10,029,270 30.8 35.23 1.14
Liberal Democrat/SDP Alliance 22 7,341,651 22.6 3.38 0.15
Scottish National 3 416,473 1.3 0.46 0.36
Ulster Unionist 9 276,230 0.8 1.38 1.73
SDLP 3 154,067 0.5 0.46 0.92
Plaid Cymru 3 123,599 0.4 0.46 1.15
Democratic Unionist 3 85,642 0.3 0.46 1.54
Sinn Féin 1 83,389 0.3 0.15 0.51
Ulster Popular Unionist 1 18,420 0.1 0.15 1.54
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
1983 Conservative 397 13,012,316 42.4 61.08 1.44 650
Labour 209 8,456,934 27.6 32.15 1.16
Liberal Democrat/SDP Alliance 23 7,780,949 25.4 3.54 0.14
Ulster Unionist 11 259,952 1.1 1.69 1.54
Democratic Unionist 3 152,749 0.5 0.46 0.92
Plaid Cymru 2 125,309 0.4 0.31 0.77
Scottish National 2 331,975 1.1 0.31 0.28
SDLP 1 137,012 0.4 0.15 0.38
Sinn Féin 1 102,701 0.3 0.15 0.51
Ulster Popular Unionist 1 22,861 0.1 0.15 1.54
PARTY SEATS VOTES VOTES % SEATS % SEAT SHARE / VOTE SHARE TOTAL SEATS
1979 Conservative 339 13,697,923 43.9 53.39 1.22 635
Labour 269 11,532,218 36.9 42.36 1.15
Liberal 11 4,313,804 13.8 1.73 0.13
Ulster Unionist 5 254,578 0.8 0.79 0.98
Democratic Unionist 3 70,795 0.2 0.47 2.36
Scottish National 2 504,259 1.6 0.31 0.20
Plaid Cymru 2 132,544 0.6 0.31 0.52
SDLP 1 126,325 0.4 0.16 0.39
United Ulster Unionist 1 39,856 0.1 0.16 1.57
Ulster Popular Unionists 1 36,989 0.1 0.16 1.57
Independent Republican 1 22,398 0.1 0.16 1.57

Sources:
BBC | http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results
UK Political Info | http://www.ukpolitical.info/Historical.htm